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Canadian Housing Market Is Going To Crash!! Or Is It???
“Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force:
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
- Mark Twain’s Own Autobiography
In July the numbers of homes sold in Canada dropped by 30% from July 2009. The media stated categorically that the Canadian real estate market was crashing. Nothing like doom and gloom to sell newspapers. Don’t worry about the facts, just have a great headline.
The Globe & Mail managed to contradict themselves in their headline; sales down in bold but in smaller print average price still up.
I recently read that:
“Statistics are usually used like a drunk person uses a lamp post – more for support than for illumination.”
Let me say the “average price” in Canada does NOT matter.
Real estate is a local industry; national issues may impact the market but supply and demand depend on local conditions. Remember that in the housing market national averages are disproportionally “skewed” by figures from Toronto and Vancouver.
The market in Wasaga beach is driven by retirees, recreational home buyers and families looking for value who are prepared to commute to work.
Again the “fact” that nationally sales dropped 30% in July does not matter. Look at what happened in the real estate market in Wasaga Beach in July. I am not saying that the market was good, bad or indifferent, just that these are the relevant figures (and to a lesser extent the surrounding Georgian Triangle.)
As they say “don’t believe the hype” and take any media news good or bad, with a pinch of salt. Reserch what is happening in the relevant area.
As an aside undoubtedly the national figures for July were influenced by the introduction of HST in Ontario and BC plus the expectation that mortgage rates were going to increase.
[...] Now that people realise that rates are not shooting up and are understanding the actual impact of the new HST when buying a home we may see more buyers taking action. From personal experience and talking to other agents the buyers have just not been willing to commit and have taken a wait and see attitude. [...]